Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 92¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$7.9K
$118.51
90.7¢ → 91.5¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 92%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 91.6¢ | $3.2K | $3.2K | +$16.99 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 classified | Noavg 89¢ | $1.8K | $1.8K | +$50 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 90.2¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | -$0.1 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
LO Logan.CTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $800 | $850 | +$50 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 91¢ | $577.65 | $580.82 | +$3.17 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 92¢ | $286.13 | $284.57 | -$1.56 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
CarInvested
$3,164.76
Value
$3.2K
PnL
+$16.99
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
classifiedInvested
$1,780
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$50
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$1,128.95
Value
$1.1K
PnL
-$0.1
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
Invested
$800
Value
$850
PnL
+$50
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
Invested
$577.65
Value
$580.82
PnL
+$3.17
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Tenebrus7Invested
$286.13
Value
$284.57
PnL
-$1.56
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
91.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.