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6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 84¢ · $3K held · ends Jan 1, 2029
🔬
Research candidate
No
6
No 100%
$3.5K
$68.95
83.1¢ → 83.5¢
+1% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
Research candidateNo at 84%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
627h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 83.3¢ | $2.1K | $2.2K | +$56.75 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
 PaddyAlpha | Noavg 83.7¢ | $416.55 | $417.54 | +$0.99 | 59% 986-684 (1670) |
 PMTraderAdam | Noavg 84¢ | $336 | $334 | -$2 | 77% 830-249 (1079) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 80¢ | $318.66 | $332.6 | +$13.94 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
 Tenebrus7 | Noavg 83¢ | $158.37 | $158.37 | +$0 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $40.86 | $40.12 | -$0.73 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
CarInvested
$2,129.02
Value
$2.2K
PnL
+$56.75
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
PaddyAlphaInvested
$416.55
Value
$417.54
PnL
+$0.99
Record
59%
986-684 (1670)
PMTraderAdamInvested
$336
Value
$334
PnL
-$2
Record
77%
830-249 (1079)
Invested
$318.66
Value
$332.6
PnL
+$13.94
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Tenebrus7Invested
$158.37
Value
$158.37
PnL
+$0
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$40.86
Value
$40.12
PnL
-$0.73
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.