Will OpenAI announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 78¢ · $11K held · ends Jan 1, 2030
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
1 arb excluded
$10.8K
-$139.04
79.6¢ → 77.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 78%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed2 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+10 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Car | Noavg 79.5¢ | $8.8K | $8.7K | -$123.75 | 67% 4165-2026 (6191) |
LI lissartter | Noavg 81.6¢ | $927.88 | $881.12 | -$46.77 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
LO Logan.CTR | Yesavg 22¢ | $440 | $450 | +$10 | 41% 648-925 (1573) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedARB<$100 | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $470.83 | $391.39 | -$80.64 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 30.6¢ | $278.53 | $204.97 | -$83.95 | |
| └ No leg | Noavg 76.1¢ | $181.92 | $186.42 | +$3.31 | |
 DEGENKHANCTR | Yesavg 20.6¢ | $207.47 | $222.29 | +$14.82 | 66% 1107-565 (1672) |
 classified | Noavg 74.8¢ | $187.1 | $195 | +$6.65 | 58% 844-614 (1458) |
CarInvested
$8,777.21
Value
$8.7K
PnL
-$123.75
Record
67%
4165-2026 (6191)
Invested
$927.88
Value
$881.12
PnL
-$46.77
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
Invested
$440
Value
$450
PnL
+$10
Record
41%
648-925 (1573)
Invested
$470.83
Value
$391.39
PnL
-$80.64
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Both legs:
DEGENKHANCTRInvested
$207.47
Value
$222.29
PnL
+$14.82
Record
66%
1107-565 (1672)
classifiedInvested
$187.1
Value
$195
PnL
+$6.65
Record
58%
844-614 (1458)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
77.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.