Will OpenAI’s market cap be $1.5T or greater at market close on IPO day by December 31, 2027?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 61¢ · $4K held · ends Jan 1, 2028
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$4.3K
$265.44
58.3¢ → 61.4¢
+5% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 61%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
11 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 58¢ | $2.3K | $2.4K | +$132.24 | 50% 1093-1094 (2187) |
 Contentious-DinnerdateCTR | Yesavg 29.5¢ | $703.54 | $920.26 | +$213.15 | 50% 415-417 (832) |
FO FolletinCTR | Yesavg 41.1¢ | $363.48 | $341.99 | -$21.49 | 69% 423-188 (611) |
 StarMaster | Noavg 60.5¢ | $321.56 | $306.75 | -$14.81 | 53% 1858-1640 (3498) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 52.7¢ | $193.32 | $183.58 | -$9.74 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR | Yesavg 51.8¢ | $138.47 | $104.55 | -$33.92 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
Invested
$2,261.17
Value
$2.4K
PnL
+$132.24
Record
50%
1093-1094 (2187)
Contentious-DinnerdateCTRInvested
$703.54
Value
$920.26
PnL
+$213.15
Record
50%
415-417 (832)
Invested
$363.48
Value
$341.99
PnL
-$21.49
Record
69%
423-188 (611)
StarMasterInvested
$321.56
Value
$306.75
PnL
-$14.81
Record
53%
1858-1640 (3498)
Invested
$193.32
Value
$183.58
PnL
-$9.74
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$138.47
Value
$104.55
PnL
-$33.92
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
61.4¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Tech 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.