Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (99%). 8 of 8 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?

8 of 8 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 0.7¢ · $2K held · ends Jul 1, 2027

Yes<1¢No>99¢Ends Thu, Jul 1, 2027View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 100%

Total Value

$2.0K

Combined PnL

-$677.55

Smart Money Entry

0.9¢ → 0.7¢

-18% since entry · 7 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Loading chart data…

Outcome Probabilities

Yes1%

No99%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes8 traders

Total Value$2.0K

Total Shares279,053

Combined PnL-$677.55

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

745h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
ME MenacingTurtleCTR	Yesavg 0.8¢	$139.36	$677.75	-$320.09	56% 252-195 (447)
NS NS13CTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$654.46	$500.4	-$154.05	51% 384-363 (747)
TimeTravelerCTR	Yesavg 0.9¢	$508.95	$418.98	-$89.97	41% 1998-2832 (4830)
LE leegunnerCTR	Yesavg 0.7¢	$283.4	$281.79	-$0.99	41% 1295-1880 (3175)
HOG993CTR<$100	Yes	$33.6	$33.6	-$34.97	43% 506-684 (1190)
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100	Yesavg 2.5¢	$78.05	$21.49	-$56.56	45% 2314-2839 (5153)
DG DG-NOCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.4¢	$28.93	$14.18	-$14.75	44% 650-818 (1468)
0X 0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaCTR<$100	Yesavg 1.5¢	$11.34	$5.18	-$6.16	42% 1278-1760 (3038)

MenacingTurtleCTR

Yes

Invested

$139.36

Value

$677.75

PnL

-$320.09

Record

56%

252-195 (447)

NS13CTR

Yes

Invested

$654.46

Value

$500.4

PnL

-$154.05

Record

51%

384-363 (747)

TimeTravelerCTR

Yes

Invested

$508.95

Value

$418.98

PnL

-$89.97

Record

41%

1998-2832 (4830)

leegunnerCTR

Yes

Invested

$283.4

Value

$281.79

PnL

-$0.99

Record

41%

1295-1880 (3175)

HOG993CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$33.6

Value

$33.6

PnL

-$34.97

Record

43%

506-684 (1190)

0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$78.05

Value

$21.49

PnL

-$56.56

Record

45%

2314-2839 (5153)

DG-NOCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$28.93

Value

$14.18

PnL

-$14.75

Record

44%

650-818 (1468)

0x53757615de1c42b83f893b79d4241a009dc2aeeaCTR<$100

Yes

Invested

$11.34

Value

$5.18

PnL

-$6.16

Record

42%

1278-1760 (3038)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 1%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

8 of 8 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors No 99%)8 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Flat

+0 pts consensus

Breadth

8 traders

Top 2 hold 60%

Freshness

Late

745h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

29 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationBalanced

100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 60% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

whaleYes 100% · 5

Aligned

ctrYes 100% · 7

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 1

Aligned

Top 1000Yes 100% · 8

Aligned

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance1.8%

0.7¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$5506.78

Max Loss

-$100.00

5606.8

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.