Consensus PnL $136K · win rate 51% (106–102, n=208) · PM monthly #492 · holds 83 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$136.1K
Record
106W / 102L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 208 settled
Batting Avg
91.3%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1819
Source
PM monthly #492
Record (90 d)
25/60 · 42%
Trades
1,768
Markets
598
Volume
$4.3M
Top consensus positions
83 in listed consensus markets · 62 of 83 on the consensus side (75%)- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $5.1K · now 23¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (95% of 19)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $4.1K · now 13¢ · in at 12¢with the consensus (96% of 28)
- Will the Toronto Maple Leafs be named the 2026-27 NHL Stanley Cup Champion?No $2.6K · now 97¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (33% of 6)
- Will the Buffalo Bills win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $2.2K · now 13¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (85% of 20)
- Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.7K · now 8¢ · in at 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $1.4K · now 8¢ · in at 4¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
- Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $1.3K · now 7¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (83% of 18)
- Will the Cincinnati Bengals win the 2027 NFL league championship?Yes $950 · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
Specialties
164 settled consensus markets · held side won 66% at an average entry of 63¢- Soccer
+3 pts
side won 69% of 131 · avg entry 65¢
ROI −3%
- MLB
+6 pts
side won 39% of 18 · avg entry 33¢
ROI −10%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 26%(won 7% of 43)
- 30–50¢: 7%(won 27% of 11)
- 50–70¢: 7%(won 82% of 11)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 95% of 99)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.