Consensus PnL $8.4K · win rate 40% (712–1052, n=1764) · PM monthly #312 · holds 70 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$8.4K
Record
712W / 1052L
Win Rate
40.0%
of 1764 settled
Batting Avg
0.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2363
Source
PM monthly #312
Record (90 d)
25/728 · 3%
Trades
657
Markets
2,008
Volume
$2.1M
Top consensus positions
70 in listed consensus markets · 64 of 70 on the consensus side (91%)- Will Liverpool win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $2.0K · now 5¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (100% of 16)
- Will Bayern Munich win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $750 · now 13¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will Arsenal win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $405 · now 14¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
- Will Manchester City win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $390 · now 7¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (96% of 23)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $343 · now 23¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (95% of 19)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?Yes $279 · now 47¢ · in at 50¢with the consensus (57% of 30)
- Will LYON win Worlds 2026?No $135 · now 99¢ · in at 99¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $125 · now 13¢ · in at 1¢with the consensus (96% of 28)
Specialties
1,611 settled consensus markets · held side won 23% at an average entry of 23¢- Entertainment
+2 pts
side won 4% of 57 · avg entry 1¢
ROI +1%
- Tennis
+2 pts
side won 4% of 45 · avg entry 2¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Elections — held side won 1% of 135 at an average 2¢ entry (−1 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 68%(won 5% of 1098)
- 30–50¢: 3%(won 40% of 50)
- 50–70¢: 18%(won 61% of 294)
- 70¢ and up: 10%(won 76% of 169)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.