Consensus PnL $100K · win rate 43% (544–711, n=1255) · was PM monthly #950 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$99.5K
Record
544W / 711L
Win Rate
43.0%
of 1255 settled
Batting Avg
66.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2277
Source
PM monthly #950
Record (90 d)
20/288 · 7%
Trades
1,197
Markets
1,649
Volume
$77.1M
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 8 of 9 on the consensus side (89%)- Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $560 · now 2¢with the consensus (93% of 14)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $373 · now 8¢with the consensus (94% of 17)
- Will Top Esports win Worlds 2026?Yes $99 · now 3¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Orlando Magic win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $34 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 8)
- Will Los Angeles Clippers win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $20 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 14)
- Will Slavia Prague win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $12 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will Borussia Dortmund win the 2026-27 UEFA Champions League Championship?Yes $10 · now 1¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
- Will New Orleans Pelicans win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $9 · now 0¢with the consensus (100% of 11)
Specialties
1,040 settled consensus markets · held side won 11% at an average entry of 9¢- Crypto
+7 pts
side won 22% of 116 · avg entry 16¢
ROI −1%
- Tennis
+2 pts
side won 3% of 69 · avg entry 1¢
ROI +4%
- Entertainment
+3 pts
side won 8% of 90 · avg entry 5¢
ROI 0%
Weakest: Economy — held side won 0% of 36 at an average 4¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI 0%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 91%(won 7% of 942)
- 30–50¢: 6%(won 41% of 59)
- 50–70¢: 2%(won 60% of 25)
- 70¢ and up: 1%(won 100% of 14)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.