Will parties below the electoral threshold receive between 6% and 8% of the vote in the 2026 Israeli legislative election?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 91¢ · $669 held · ended Oct 28
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$668.69
$20.13
75.9¢ → 90.8¢
+20% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 91%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
137h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thanksforplayin | Noavg 70¢ | $363.4 | $472.4 | +$109 | 55% 367-302 (669) |
 HolyMoses7 | Noavg 95.7¢ | $151.3 | $140.12 | -$1.17 | 54% 1579-1356 (2935) |
PA pakukudolphiCTR | Yesavg 37¢ | $114.81 | $27.93 | -$86.88 | 47% 100-115 (215) |
 Sardinianshepherd<$100 | Noavg 76¢ | $22.04 | $26.23 | +$4.36 | 65% 933-508 (1441) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $2.3 | $0.9 | -$1.4 | 40% 23-35 (58) |
 BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100 | Yesavg 65.3¢ | $4.37 | $0.6 | -$3.77 | 58% 190-138 (328) |
thanksforplayinInvested
$363.4
Value
$472.4
PnL
+$109
Record
55%
367-302 (669)
HolyMoses7Invested
$151.3
Value
$140.12
PnL
-$1.17
Record
54%
1579-1356 (2935)
Invested
$114.81
Value
$27.93
PnL
-$86.88
Record
47%
100-115 (215)
Sardinianshepherd<$100Invested
$22.04
Value
$26.23
PnL
+$4.36
Record
65%
933-508 (1441)
Invested
$2.3
Value
$0.9
PnL
-$1.4
Record
40%
23-35 (58)
BiDiFakePollsCTR<$100Invested
$4.37
Value
$0.6
PnL
-$3.77
Record
58%
190-138 (328)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
90.8¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.