Consensus PnL $160K · win rate 46% (79–91, n=170) · PM monthly #758 · holds 21 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$160.4K
Record
79W / 91L
Win Rate
46.0%
of 170 settled
Batting Avg
45.5%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2185
Source
PM monthly #758
Record (90 d)
22/52 · 42%
Trades
517
Markets
270
Volume
$3.1M
Top consensus positions
21 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 21 on the consensus side (76%)- Will Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No $25K · now 96¢ · in at 89¢with the consensus (68% of 19)
- Will a new country join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No $17K · now 88¢ · in at 71¢with the consensus (75% of 12)
- Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel?No $6.1K · now 67¢ · in at 65¢with the consensus (63% of 142)
- Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?Yes $6.0K · now 39¢ · in at 35¢with the consensus (82% of 34)
- Israel and Syria normalize relations by December 31, 2026?No $4.7K · now 96¢ · in at 88¢with the consensus (100% of 7)
- Will Saudi airspace be closed by December 31?No $4.3K · now 86¢ · in at 86¢with the consensus (60% of 10)
- Will the Democrats win the Nevada governor race in 2026?Yes $3.0K · now 76¢ · in at 55¢with the consensus (56% of 49)
- Will Kuwait join the Abraham Accords before 2027?No $3.0K · now 96¢ · in at 94¢with the consensus (75% of 8)
Specialties
188 settled consensus markets · held side won 44% at an average entry of 45¢- Elections
+13 pts
side won 71% of 17 · avg entry 58¢
ROI +12%
Weakest: MLB — held side won 17% of 12 at an average 51¢ entry (−34 pts against the price), ROI −36%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 38%(won 8% of 71)
- 30–50¢: 14%(won 33% of 27)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 55% of 40)
- 70¢ and up: 27%(won 90% of 50)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.