Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (50%). 0 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Patrick Mahomes win the 2026 NFL Comeback Player of the Year award for the 2026-27 NFL season?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 50¢ · $1K held · ends Feb 11, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$1.1K
-$128.04
55.6¢ → 50¢
-10% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 50%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 50%)2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 64%
Freshness
Fresh
10h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
5 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 64% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yes | $3.35 | $453.78 | -$171.85 | 66% 925-481 (1406) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 43.8¢ | $185.24 | $212.28 | +$49.34 | 45% 2406-2976 (5382) |
AB ABC12345654321 | No | $201.18 | $201.18 | +$67.6 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
 JustADonk | Noavg 62.7¢ | $229.14 | $184.85 | -$44.29 | 55% 920-756 (1676) |
0X 0x38d5a13ef8e32d5e5a808ceba52d6ac78d4c063c<$100 | Noavg 80¢ | $80 | $51 | -$29.5 | 67% 630-315 (945) |
 CUTJALENHURTS<$100 | Yesavg 26¢ | $0.73 | $1.37 | +$0.66 | 52% 5926-5525 (11451) |
Invested
$3.35
Value
$453.78
PnL
-$171.85
Record
66%
925-481 (1406)
Invested
$185.24
Value
$212.28
PnL
+$49.34
Record
45%
2406-2976 (5382)
Invested
$201.18
Value
$201.18
PnL
+$67.6
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
JustADonkInvested
$229.14
Value
$184.85
PnL
-$44.29
Record
55%
920-756 (1676)
Invested
$80
Value
$51
PnL
-$29.5
Record
67%
630-315 (945)
CUTJALENHURTS<$100Invested
$0.73
Value
$1.37
PnL
+$0.66
Record
52%
5926-5525 (11451)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
50.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.