Smart money holds the underdog side

Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (94%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.

Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.

Will Brian Bengs win the South Dakota Senate race in 2026?

2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (33%) · Yes at 6.0¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4

Yes6¢No94¢Ends Wed, Nov 4, 2026View on Polymarket

SIGNAL

⚠️

Avoid

Yes

Consensus Traders

Yes 33%

Total Value

$1.0K

Combined PnL

-$27.63

Smart Money Entry

6¢ → 6¢

+0% since entry · 2 traders

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Market Activity

Outcome Probabilities

Yes6%

No94%

Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome

Yes2 traders

Total Value$796.68

Total Shares13,168

Combined PnL-$27.16

No4 traders

Total Value$222.36

Total Shares236

Combined PnL-$0.46

Yes — 33%No — 67%

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

496h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Trader	Position	Invested	Value	PnL	Record
BigRabbitCTR	Yesavg 6¢	$600.5	$605.8	-$24.66	40% 704-1061 (1765)
CO cocococococoCTR	Yesavg 6.1¢	$193.39	$190.88	-$2.5	52% 1665-1535 (3200)
EL Elias.Thornwell<$100	Noavg 95.8¢	$88.36	$86.79	-$1.57	76% 11352-3524 (14876)
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100	Noavg 94¢	$59.55	$59.48	-$0.07	53% 6689-5886 (12575)
GH ghorrock<$100	Noavg 93.2¢	$47.41	$47.86	+$0.53	56% 14224-11030 (25254)
TBill1<$100	Noavg 92.1¢	$27.63	$28.23	+$0.65	45% 154-188 (342)

BigRabbitCTR

Yes

Invested

$600.5

Value

$605.8

PnL

-$24.66

Record

40%

704-1061 (1765)

cocococococoCTR

Yes

Invested

$193.39

Value

$190.88

PnL

-$2.5

Record

52%

1665-1535 (3200)

Elias.Thornwell<$100

Invested

$88.36

Value

$86.79

PnL

-$1.57

Record

76%

11352-3524 (14876)

Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100

Invested

$59.55

Value

$59.48

PnL

-$0.07

Record

53%

6689-5886 (12575)

ghorrock<$100

Invested

$47.41

Value

$47.86

PnL

+$0.53

Record

56%

14224-11030 (25254)

TBill1<$100

Invested

$27.63

Value

$28.23

PnL

+$0.65

Record

45%

154-188 (342)

Research grade

AvoidYes at 6%

Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.

Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.

Smart Money Signal

Yes

2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors No 94%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)

Signal Intelligence

Momentum

Fading

-10 pts consensus

Breadth

2 traders

Top 2 hold 100%

Freshness

Late

496h old

Flip Quality

Choppy

3 consensus flips

Breadth vs concentrationCrowded

33% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.

Cohort consensusHand-picked vs top 1000 · whales, sharps, snipers, contrarians

The hand-picked list (2 on Yes) and the top 1000 (4 on No) disagree here.

whaleNo 100% · 2

Diverging

sharpNo 100% · 1

Diverging

ctrYes 67% · 3

Aligned

Hand-pickedYes 100% · 2

Aligned

Top 1000No 100% · 4

Diverging

Chat

EV Calculator

Your estimated chance that Yes wins (%)

Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.

Stake (USDC)

Break-even chance7.3%

6.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.

Expected Value—

Expected ROIenter your estimate

Max Profit

+$1277.33

Max Loss

-$100.00

1377.3

A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.