Will Pope Leo XIV be TIME Person of the Year 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 83¢ · $3K held · ends Dec 31
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 100%
$3.3K
-$56.84
84.5¢ → 83¢
-2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 83%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Culture / mentionsFull year, out of sample: culture lost −4.0 % a trade (n 1,214, 95 % CI −9.7 to +2.0); Oct 22 backtest: −7.1 % and −15.4 % in its two windows.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 72%
Freshness
Late
1581h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 72% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 Sardinianshepherd | Noavg 84¢ | $1.7K | $1.7K | -$19.97 | 65% 929-506 (1435) |
 Parz1vaI | Noavg 83.8¢ | $691.79 | $685.59 | -$6.2 | 72% 3507-1334 (4841) |
 cambridgeisaac | Noavg 85.2¢ | $414.53 | $403.82 | -$10.71 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
CO cocococococo | Noavg 83.3¢ | $293.07 | $292.15 | -$0.92 | 52% 1665-1535 (3200) |
DI Dimpled-Foal | Noavg 90.4¢ | $231.51 | $212.48 | -$19.03 | 54% 229-195 (424) |
 debased<$100 | Noavg 84¢ | $1.05 | $1.04 | -$0.01 | 58% 2317-1682 (3999) |
SardinianshepherdInvested
$1,679.98
Value
$1.7K
PnL
-$19.97
Record
65%
929-506 (1435)
Parz1vaIInvested
$691.79
Value
$685.59
PnL
-$6.2
Record
72%
3507-1334 (4841)
cambridgeisaacInvested
$414.53
Value
$403.82
PnL
-$10.71
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
Invested
$293.07
Value
$292.15
PnL
-$0.92
Record
52%
1665-1535 (3200)
Invested
$231.51
Value
$212.48
PnL
-$19.03
Record
54%
229-195 (424)
debased<$100Invested
$1.05
Value
$1.04
PnL
-$0.01
Record
58%
2317-1682 (3999)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.