Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (98%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Portland Trail Blazers win the 2027 NBA Finals?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 2.3¢ · $4K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$3.8K
$1.9K
1.1¢ → 2.3¢
+111% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 2%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- BasketballFull year, out of sample: basketball lost −4.8 % a trade (n 1,747, 95 % CI −9.2 to +0.3); Oct 22 backtest: −12.0 % and −9.2 % in its two windows.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 98%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 75%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
13 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 75% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 EdZacharyCTR | Yesavg 1¢ | $700 | $1.8K | +$1.1K | 40% 94-142 (236) |
RA RaisuuCTR | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $396.67 | $657.55 | +$260.88 | — 7-3 (10) |
TH thebug44CTR | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $182.88 | $614.14 | +$431.27 | 33% 42-86 (128) |
0X 0xf475402430f3dc9611abeea737fe69dd02f48486 | Noavg 98.6¢ | $299.74 | $546.28 | -$1.19 | 11% 20-165 (185) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 1.3¢ | $121.42 | $210.91 | +$89.49 | 41% 1986-2802 (4788) |
0X 0x00000000000000000000000000000000000000CTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.1¢ | $0.8 | $1.8 | +$1 | 42% 2258-3075 (5333) |
EdZacharyCTRInvested
$700
Value
$1.8K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
40%
94-142 (236)
Invested
$396.67
Value
$657.55
PnL
+$260.88
Record
—
7-3 (10)
Invested
$182.88
Value
$614.14
PnL
+$431.27
Record
33%
42-86 (128)
Invested
$299.74
Value
$546.28
PnL
-$1.19
Record
11%
20-165 (185)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$121.42
Value
$210.91
PnL
+$89.49
Record
41%
1986-2802 (4788)
Invested
$0.8
Value
$1.8
PnL
+$1
Record
42%
2258-3075 (5333)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
2.3¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.