Consensus PnL $185K · win rate 38% (55–90, n=145) · was PM monthly #989 · holds 20 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$185.2K
Record
55W / 90L
Win Rate
38.0%
of 145 settled
Batting Avg
61.9%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#2128
Source
PM monthly #989
Trades
1,895
Markets
202
Volume
$1.1M
Top consensus positions
20 in listed consensus markets · 16 of 20 on the consensus side (80%)- Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $19K · now 13¢ · in at 8¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $14K · now 5¢ · in at 3¢with the consensus (90% of 10)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?Yes $9.9K · now 15¢ · in at 15¢with the consensus (88% of 33)
- Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 US Presidential Election?Yes $9.4K · now 10¢ · in at 10¢with the consensus (85% of 26)
- Will San Antonio Spurs win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $8.9K · now 24¢ · in at 18¢with the consensus (92% of 12)
- Will New York Knicks win the 2027 NBA Finals?Yes $8.5K · now 8¢ · in at 7¢with the consensus (100% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?Yes $8.5K · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (69% of 48)
- Will Inter Miami CF win the 2026 MLS Cup?Yes $3.6K · now 17¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
101 settled consensus markets · held side won 45% at an average entry of 35¢- Soccer
+28 pts
side won 73% of 30 · avg entry 45¢
ROI +4%
- NBA
+3 pts
side won 33% of 27 · avg entry 30¢
ROI +37%
Weakest: NFL — held side won 29% of 14 at an average 29¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI −4%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 14% of 49)
- 30–50¢: 20%(won 65% of 20)
- 50–70¢: 21%(won 76% of 21)
- 70¢ and up: 11%(won 82% of 11)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.