Will Predict.fun launch a token by November 30, 2026?
4 of 7 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (57%) · Yes at 87¢ · $9K held · ends Dec 1
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
7
Yes 57%
$8.9K
-$5.01
84.2¢ → 87.1¢
+3% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 87%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 7 top traders (57%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+37 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 98%
Freshness
Late
714h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
57% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 98% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SU suntori | Yesavg 84.5¢ | $6.8K | $6.9K | +$192.96 | — |
DO Dokkl | Yesavg 82.9¢ | $1.4K | $1.5K | +$59.64 | — |
TR troimCTR | Noavg 25.2¢ | $504.99 | $270 | -$235 | 2% 6-334 (340) |
0X 0x9495d622aB74a6O1AD1668D3DD4F7A2E68C3468F | Yesavg 87.5¢ | $105 | $103.97 | -$1.03 | 3% 1-29 (30) |
XT xtxpleasecallme<$100 | Yesavg 79.3¢ | $91.09 | $97.1 | +$6.01 | 41% 3167-4511 (7678) |
 HaradwaithCTR | Noavg 22.5¢ | $225.16 | $35.09 | -$26.63 | 55% 48-40 (88) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Noavg 14¢ | $26.88 | $25.92 | -$0.96 | 9% 3-30 (33) |
Invested
$6,751.6
Value
$6.9K
PnL
+$192.96
Record
—
Invested
$1,400
Value
$1.5K
PnL
+$59.64
Record
—
Invested
$504.99
Value
$270
PnL
-$235
Record
2%
6-334 (340)
Invested
$105
Value
$103.97
PnL
-$1.03
Record
3%
1-29 (30)
Invested
$91.09
Value
$97.1
PnL
+$6.01
Record
41%
3167-4511 (7678)
HaradwaithCTRInvested
$225.16
Value
$35.09
PnL
-$26.63
Record
55%
48-40 (88)
Invested
$26.88
Value
$25.92
PnL
-$0.96
Record
9%
3-30 (33)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
87.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.