Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (75%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will Ra'am be in the next Israeli government?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 26¢ · $1K held · ends Jun 30, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$1.3K
$148.04
21.6¢ → 25.5¢
+18% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 26%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 75%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 69%
Freshness
Late
416h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 69% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 clazzy1 | Noavg 77¢ | $385 | $385 | +$7.5 | 62% 413-249 (662) |
LJ LJa7io23MCv954jCTR | Yesavg 18.2¢ | $248.86 | $376.51 | +$127.65 | 64% 85-47 (132) |
WA wan123CTR | Yesavg 25.5¢ | $235.42 | $230.44 | -$4.98 | 39% 196-304 (500) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 22.6¢ | $109.96 | $124.91 | +$14.94 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR | Yesavg 25¢ | $113.59 | $113.51 | -$0.08 | 39% 1781-2832 (4613) |
 cambridgeisaacCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $27 | $30 | +$3 | 57% 1114-837 (1951) |
clazzy1Invested
$385
Value
$385
PnL
+$7.5
Record
62%
413-249 (662)
Invested
$248.86
Value
$376.51
PnL
+$127.65
Record
64%
85-47 (132)
Invested
$235.42
Value
$230.44
PnL
-$4.98
Record
39%
196-304 (500)
Invested
$109.96
Value
$124.91
PnL
+$14.94
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Invested
$113.59
Value
$113.51
PnL
-$0.08
Record
39%
1781-2832 (4613)
cambridgeisaacCTR<$100Invested
$27
Value
$30
PnL
+$3
Record
57%
1114-837 (1951)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
25.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + no taker fee. Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.