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85
Consensus PnL $3.4K · win rate 71% (110–44, n=154) · was PM monthly #393 · holds 18 consensus positions
0x85a85805...53949281Polymarket
🎯Sharp🎰Degen
Consensus PnL
$3.4K
Record
110W / 44L
Win Rate
71.0%
of 154 settled
Batting Avg
60.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#708
Source
PM monthly #393
Trades
168
Markets
184
Volume
$556.7K
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 18 of 18 on the consensus side (100%)- Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by December 31?No $15K · now 94¢ · in at 38¢with the consensus (29% of 7)
- US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?Yes $11K · now 99¢ · in at 74¢with the consensus (69% of 67)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel?Yes $11K · now 37¢ · in at 26¢with the consensus (66% of 53)
- Will Anthropic IPO by November 15, 2026?No $9.5K · now 99¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (50% of 10)
- US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?Yes $5.5K · now 95¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (65% of 26)
- Ilhan Omar federally charged by December 31?No $4.7K · now 63¢ · in at 66¢with the consensus (83% of 6)
- Will Gadi Eizenkot receive the first mandate to form a government after the 2026 Israeli election?Yes $4.6K · now 70¢ · in at 58¢with the consensus (69% of 13)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026?No $4.0K · now 73¢ · in at 68¢with the consensus (52% of 22)
Specialties
118 settled consensus markets · held side won 96% at an average entry of 80¢- Geopolitics
+16 pts
side won 95% of 103 · avg entry 79¢
ROI +14%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 3%(won 0% of 3)
- 30–50¢: 4%(won 100% of 5)
- 50–70¢: 15%(won 100% of 18)
- 70¢ and up: 78%(won 98% of 92)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.