Will Republican House incumbents not win in between four and six nominating elections in the 2026 cycle?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 90¢ · $4K held
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$3.8K
$121.6
87.8¢ → 89.5¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 90%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 94%
Freshness
Late
1382h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 94% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SN SnapElectionAvoider | Yesavg 86.2¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$92.88 | 53% 1174-1056 (2230) |
AR Arman2 | Yesavg 96.7¢ | $966.59 | $873.64 | -$65.52 | 58% 332-242 (574) |
 Rex416 | Yesavg 93.9¢ | $140.85 | $143.18 | -$6.9 | 57% 2537-1923 (4460) |
 nicoco89<$100 | Yesavg 56.8¢ | $32.89 | $55.24 | +$18.81 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
 NadmiCTR<$100 | Noavg 3.7¢ | $29.76 | $36.42 | +$55.76 | 47% 2036-2278 (4314) |
 2B9S<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $0.24 | $28.64 | +$26.57 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
Invested
$2,558.27
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$92.88
Record
53%
1174-1056 (2230)
Invested
$966.59
Value
$873.64
PnL
-$65.52
Record
58%
332-242 (574)
Rex416Invested
$140.85
Value
$143.18
PnL
-$6.9
Record
57%
2537-1923 (4460)
nicoco89<$100Invested
$32.89
Value
$55.24
PnL
+$18.81
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
NadmiCTR<$100Invested
$29.76
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$55.76
Record
47%
2036-2278 (4314)
2B9S<$100Invested
$0.24
Value
$28.64
PnL
+$26.57
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
89.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.3¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.