Will Revolut launch a USD stablecoin in 2026?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 63¢ · $9K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$8.5K
-$525.27
63.7¢ → 63¢
-1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 63%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
3278h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
34 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 alanhutton | Noavg 67.4¢ | $6.9K | $5.9K | -$996.56 | 68% 335-158 (493) |
MU muddyrcCTR | Yesavg 39.6¢ | $937.86 | $1.2K | +$218.05 | 51% 230-218 (448) |
 XieGuangKun | Noavg 44.9¢ | $897.94 | $1.1K | +$251.84 | 51% 367-349 (716) |
 probability | Noavg 49.9¢ | $163.79 | $191.54 | +$27.74 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
 95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04 | Noavg 68.6¢ | $193.92 | $158.32 | -$29.95 | 88% 2229-292 (2521) |
 Optimus-CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25¢ | $3.61 | $7.21 | +$3.61 | 61% 1200-768 (1968) |
alanhuttonInvested
$6,921.99
Value
$5.9K
PnL
-$996.56
Record
68%
335-158 (493)
Invested
$937.86
Value
$1.2K
PnL
+$218.05
Record
51%
230-218 (448)
XieGuangKunInvested
$897.94
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$251.84
Record
51%
367-349 (716)
probabilityInvested
$163.79
Value
$191.54
PnL
+$27.74
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
95074f700f93bdf6e62fc965e0832064c0877b04Invested
$193.92
Value
$158.32
PnL
-$29.95
Record
88%
2229-292 (2521)
Optimus-CTR<$100Invested
$3.61
Value
$7.21
PnL
+$3.61
Record
61%
1200-768 (1968)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.6¢ fee (Crypto 7%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.