Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold Yes, while the market favors No (77%). 5 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will San Francisco 49ers win the 2027 NFL NFC Championship?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 23¢ · $311 held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚠️
Avoid
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$310.75
$201.55
12.7¢ → 23¢
+82% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
AvoidYes at 23%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)Underdog side (market favors No 77%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%5 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 93%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
23 consensus flips
80% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 93% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PE peepeepooppoopCTR | Yesavg 8¢ | $3.16 | $182.02 | +$129.8 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
 probabilityCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $11.1 | $71.13 | +$49.84 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 25.2¢ | $60.77 | $36.42 | +$18.95 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
 UbuntuTradingCTR<$100 | Yesavg 24.1¢ | $16.88 | $18.84 | +$1.96 | 57% 3069-2356 (5425) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 14.5¢ | $4.5 | $1.58 | +$1.16 | 76% 11354-3525 (14879) |
RA rated<$100 | Noavg 92.4¢ | $0.92 | $0.76 | -$0.17 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
Invested
$3.16
Value
$182.02
PnL
+$129.8
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
probabilityCTR<$100Invested
$11.1
Value
$71.13
PnL
+$49.84
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$60.77
Value
$36.42
PnL
+$18.95
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
UbuntuTradingCTR<$100Invested
$16.88
Value
$18.84
PnL
+$1.96
Record
57%
3069-2356 (5425)
Invested
$4.5
Value
$1.58
PnL
+$1.16
Record
76%
11354-3525 (14879)
Invested
$0.92
Value
$0.76
PnL
-$0.17
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
23.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.