Will Ségolène Royal win the 2027 French presidential election?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 100¢ · $1K held · ends Apr 19, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$1.4K
-$247.78
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+3 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
24 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
EL Elias.Thornwell | Noavg 99.6¢ | $1.2K | $1.3K | +$4.01 | 76% 11352-3524 (14876) |
 scottiliciousCTR | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $100 | $50 | -$49.9 | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 DonationsReceiverCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.1¢ | $83.98 | $25.46 | -$58.52 | 60% 245-160 (405) |
NY NyetRiskCTR<$100 | Yes | $4.83 | $4.83 | -$70.62 | 7% 14-187 (201) |
FL flawfenceCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.8¢ | $62.91 | $4.03 | -$58.88 | 46% 271-319 (590) |
BI BikesAreTheBikesCTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.4¢ | $1.19 | $0.95 | -$13.87 | 39% 1780-2832 (4612) |
Invested
$1,244.12
Value
$1.3K
PnL
+$4.01
Record
76%
11352-3524 (14876)
scottiliciousCTRInvested
$100
Value
$50
PnL
-$49.9
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
DonationsReceiverCTR<$100Invested
$83.98
Value
$25.46
PnL
-$58.52
Record
60%
245-160 (405)
Invested
$4.83
Value
$4.83
PnL
-$70.62
Record
7%
14-187 (201)
Invested
$62.91
Value
$4.03
PnL
-$58.88
Record
46%
271-319 (590)
Invested
$1.19
Value
$0.95
PnL
-$13.87
Record
39%
1780-2832 (4612)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.