Consensus PnL $1.5M · win rate 83% (689–139, n=828) · hand-picked wallet · holds 40 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.5M
Record
689W / 139L
Win Rate
83.0%
of 828 settled
Batting Avg
75.6%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#366
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
54,411
Markets
1,274
Volume
$58.9M
Top consensus positions
40 in listed consensus markets · 32 of 40 on the consensus side (80%)- Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?Yes $284K · now 95¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (86% of 158)
- 2026 Balance of Power: R Senate, R HouseNo $87K · now 96¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (72% of 72)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $68K · now 74¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (68% of 45)
- Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election?Yes $49K · now 44¢ · in at 53¢with the consensus (64% of 62)
- Will the Democrats win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?Yes $36K · now 85¢ · in at 79¢with the consensus (50% of 22)
- Will the Democratic Party win the AZ-01 House seat?Yes $20K · now 81¢ · in at 72¢with the consensus (67% of 9)
- Will the Democrats win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?Yes $17K · now 94¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (72% of 25)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $16K · now 71¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (82% of 108)
Specialties
1,151 settled consensus markets · held side won 87% at an average entry of 86¢- Geopolitics
+4 pts
side won 92% of 342 · avg entry 88¢
ROI +4%
- Economy
+2 pts
side won 94% of 32 · avg entry 92¢
ROI +2%
- Culture
+4 pts
side won 67% of 12 · avg entry 63¢
ROI +5%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 91% of 75 at an average 91¢ entry (±0 pts against the price), ROI +2%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 7%(won 13% of 78)
- 30–50¢: 1%(won 21% of 14)
- 50–70¢: 3%(won 54% of 39)
- 70¢ and up: 89%(won 95% of 1020)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.