Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 100¢ · $182 held · ends Jan 2, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$181.91
-$68.14
Research grade
NeutralNo at 100%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
4826h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
18 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
WO wokerjoesleeper | Noavg 99.4¢ | $173.13 | $174.01 | +$0.89 | 33% 6263-12990 (19253) |
LE LetTheGoodTimesRoll<$100 | No | $10 | $5 | +$5 | 45% 3592-4351 (7943) |
HO HourglassCTR | Yes | $623.71 | $1.86 | -$48.41 | 77% 8889-2658 (11547) |
KO korda77CTR<$100 | Yes | $0.75 | $0.75 | -$18.15 | 52% 5046-4713 (9759) |
RA ratedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 1.4¢ | $7.7 | $0.28 | -$7.42 | 29% 2865-6952 (9817) |
RO rocky42019CTR<$100 | Yesavg 0.3¢ | $0.05 | $0.01 | -$0.04 | 42% 1725-2358 (4083) |
Invested
$173.13
Value
$174.01
PnL
+$0.89
Record
33%
6263-12990 (19253)
Invested
$10
Value
$5
PnL
+$5
Record
45%
3592-4351 (7943)
Invested
$623.71
Value
$1.86
PnL
-$48.41
Record
77%
8889-2658 (11547)
Invested
$0.75
Value
$0.75
PnL
-$18.15
Record
52%
5046-4713 (9759)
Invested
$7.7
Value
$0.28
PnL
-$7.42
Record
29%
2865-6952 (9817)
Invested
$0.05
Value
$0.01
PnL
-$0.04
Record
42%
1725-2358 (4083)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
100.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.