Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (55%). 6 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day have the 2nd best domestic opening weekend in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 46¢ · $1K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$1.1K
-$67.61
50.9¢ → 45.5¢
-11% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 46%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 30–50¢Full year, out of sample: 0.30–0.50 lost −4.8 % a trade (n 16,830, 95 % CI −6.6 to −3.1), worse than the plain consensus.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 55%)6 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Late
1510h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
15 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 eCashCTR | Noavg 46.5¢ | $585.15 | $572.48 | -$12.67 | 68% 331-155 (486) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Noavg 54.6¢ | $225.79 | $233.03 | +$7.25 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 Tenebrus7CTR | Noavg 59.2¢ | $237.93 | $182.94 | -$54.99 | 73% 2953-1072 (4025) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Noavg 51.9¢ | $79.9 | $77.35 | -$2.55 | 53% 6690-5887 (12577) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73CTR<$100 | Noavg 45.2¢ | $18.81 | $19.9 | +$1.09 | 39% 175-269 (444) |
 tetraseCTR<$100 | Noavg 64.7¢ | $19.4 | $13.65 | -$5.75 | 61% 839-544 (1383) |
eCashCTRInvested
$585.15
Value
$572.48
PnL
-$12.67
Record
68%
331-155 (486)
Invested
$225.79
Value
$233.03
PnL
+$7.25
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
Tenebrus7CTRInvested
$237.93
Value
$182.94
PnL
-$54.99
Record
73%
2953-1072 (4025)
Invested
$79.9
Value
$77.35
PnL
-$2.55
Record
53%
6690-5887 (12577)
Invested
$18.81
Value
$19.9
PnL
+$1.09
Record
39%
175-269 (444)
tetraseCTR<$100Invested
$19.4
Value
$13.65
PnL
-$5.75
Record
61%
839-544 (1383)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
45.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.