Will St. Louis City SC win the 2026 MLS Cup?
1 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (20%) · No at 94¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 20%
$2.2K
$311
Research grade
NeutralNo at 94%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 5 top traders (20%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+6 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Mature
31h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
20% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 thefakenick | Noavg 92.5¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | +$23.24 | 56% 841-660 (1501) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 2.9¢ | $223.69 | $390.71 | +$188.52 | 41% 2003-2843 (4846) |
PU purplegattoCTR | Yesavg 5¢ | $302.91 | $331.06 | +$52.25 | 50% 6070-6170 (12240) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Yes | $94.5 | $94.5 | +$41.22 | 48% 8542-9084 (17626) |
BI BiggggggggCTR<$100 | Yes | $9.44 | $9.44 | +$5.77 | 43% 3085-4124 (7209) |
thefakenickInvested
$1,386.76
Value
$1.4K
PnL
+$23.24
Record
56%
841-660 (1501)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$223.69
Value
$390.71
PnL
+$188.52
Record
41%
2003-2843 (4846)
Invested
$302.91
Value
$331.06
PnL
+$52.25
Record
50%
6070-6170 (12240)
Invested
$94.5
Value
$94.5
PnL
+$41.22
Record
48%
8542-9084 (17626)
Invested
$9.44
Value
$9.44
PnL
+$5.77
Record
43%
3085-4124 (7209)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
94.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.