Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 96¢ · $832 held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 100%
$831.96
$104.55
83.9¢ → 96¢
+14% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 96%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 57%
Freshness
Late
2553h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 57% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
KR Krass | Noavg 79.5¢ | $261.64 | $316.12 | +$54.48 | 74% 452-155 (607) |
 Dr.mett | Noavg 82.8¢ | $139.26 | $161.45 | +$22.19 | 86% 1417-234 (1651) |
 probability | Noavg 88.4¢ | $148.67 | $161.4 | +$12.72 | 42% 1368-1924 (3292) |
TT tttt123<$100 | Noavg 83¢ | $83 | $96 | +$13 | 72% 1535-585 (2120) |
 TheKinginYellow<$100 | Noavg 94.7¢ | $90.86 | $92.1 | +$1.25 | 68% 830-398 (1228) |
FU Fulgurator<$100 | Noavg 74.7¢ | $3.97 | $4.88 | +$0.91 | 92% 61-5 (66) |
Invested
$261.64
Value
$316.12
PnL
+$54.48
Record
74%
452-155 (607)
Dr.mettInvested
$139.26
Value
$161.45
PnL
+$22.19
Record
86%
1417-234 (1651)
probabilityInvested
$148.67
Value
$161.4
PnL
+$12.72
Record
42%
1368-1924 (3292)
Invested
$83
Value
$96
PnL
+$13
Record
72%
1535-585 (2120)
TheKinginYellow<$100Invested
$90.86
Value
$92.1
PnL
+$1.25
Record
68%
830-398 (1228)
Invested
$3.97
Value
$4.88
PnL
+$0.91
Record
92%
61-5 (66)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
96.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.