Will Sunderland be relegated from the 2026-27 Premier League?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 64¢ · $684 held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
1 arb excluded
$684.34
$90.02
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed5 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
240h old
Flip Quality
Clean
1 consensus flip
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 probabilityARB<$100 | Noavg 65¢ | $288.86 | $350 | +$64.12 | 40% 1573-2382 (3955) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 65¢ | $177.47 | $206.16 | +$28.25 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $108.9 | $143.84 | +$35.87 | |
ND ndb1 | Noavg 77¢ | $121.17 | $118.81 | -$20.46 | 64% 1050-593 (1643) |
 TimeTravelerCTR | Yesavg 18.5¢ | $121.77 | $109.73 | +$77.98 | 41% 2125-3051 (5176) |
AU auros2CTR<$100 | Yes | $90.38 | $90.38 | +$36.62 | — 4-0 (4) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 35¢ | $8.84 | $8.41 | -$0.43 | 58% 21239-15426 (36665) |
SU SulkingCryptoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 40¢ | $11.6 | $5.78 | -$3.82 | 16% 383-1960 (2343) |
EL Elias.ThornwellCTR<$100 | Yesavg 22¢ | $1.1 | $1.23 | +$0.13 | 77% 12698-3875 (16573) |
probabilityARB<$100Invested
$288.86
Value
$350
PnL
+$64.12
Record
40%
1573-2382 (3955)
Both legs:
Invested
$121.17
Value
$118.81
PnL
-$20.46
Record
64%
1050-593 (1643)
TimeTravelerCTRInvested
$121.77
Value
$109.73
PnL
+$77.98
Record
41%
2125-3051 (5176)
Invested
$90.38
Value
$90.38
PnL
+$36.62
Record
—
4-0 (4)
Invested
$8.84
Value
$8.41
PnL
-$0.43
Record
58%
21239-15426 (36665)
Invested
$11.6
Value
$5.78
PnL
-$3.82
Record
16%
383-1960 (2343)
Invested
$1.1
Value
$1.23
PnL
+$0.13
Record
77%
12698-3875 (16573)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
64.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.1¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.