Consensus PnL $86K · win rate 54% (409–349, n=758) · hand-picked wallet · holds 18 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$85.7K
Record
409W / 349L
Win Rate
54.0%
of 758 settled
Batting Avg
64.4%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1507
Source
Hand-picked
Trades
31,996
Markets
1,708
Volume
$2.5M
Top consensus positions
18 in listed consensus markets · 17 of 18 on the consensus side (94%)- Will SpaceX have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?Yes $3.4K · now 54¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (74% of 27)
- Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2027?Yes $2.7K · now 64¢ · in at 60¢with the consensus (50% of 13)
- Will the Republican Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?No $1.9K · now 95¢ · in at 90¢with the consensus (80% of 107)
- Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?Yes $1.4K · now 71¢ · in at 62¢with the consensus (82% of 110)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.25T at market close on IPO day?Yes $776 · now 21¢ · in at 19¢with the consensus (64% of 14)
- Will Chiang Wan-an win the next Taipei Mayor election?Yes $750 · now 74¢ · in at 64¢with the consensus (78% of 27)
- Will Anthropic's market cap be between $1.75T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No $700 · now 70¢ · in at 69¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by December 31, 2026?Yes $675 · now 92¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (67% of 12)
Specialties
975 settled consensus markets · held side won 43% at an average entry of 39¢- Esports
+6 pts
side won 43% of 519 · avg entry 37¢
ROI +2%
- Tech
+6 pts
side won 53% of 142 · avg entry 47¢
ROI +3%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 30% of 27 at an average 34¢ entry (−4 pts against the price), ROI −1%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 49%(won 8% of 479)
- 30–50¢: 13%(won 40% of 122)
- 50–70¢: 13%(won 74% of 126)
- 70¢ and up: 25%(won 98% of 248)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.