Will T1 Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?
3 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (60%) · No at 56¢ · $13K held · ends Nov 29
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 60%
$12.6K
$1.1K
51¢ → 55.5¢
+9% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 56%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 5 top traders (60%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
117h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
6 consensus flips
60% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 vtcchampion52 | Noavg 51¢ | $11.3K | $12.2K | +$1.1K | 48% 1174-1259 (2433) |
 LooksMaxing101 | Noavg 48.5¢ | $187.78 | $214.75 | +$5.68 | 51% 887-849 (1736) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 47.1¢ | $135.51 | $159.28 | +$1.49 | 45% 3028-3723 (6751) |
GH ghorrockCTR<$100 | Yesavg 36.2¢ | $49.75 | $50.1 | +$2.94 | 58% 21689-15792 (37481) |
 Anjun<$100 | Noavg 73¢ | $40.15 | $30.53 | -$6.33 | 55% 5199-4283 (9482) |
vtcchampion52Invested
$11,290.49
Value
$12.2K
PnL
+$1.1K
Record
48%
1174-1259 (2433)
LooksMaxing101Invested
$187.78
Value
$214.75
PnL
+$5.68
Record
51%
887-849 (1736)
Invested
$135.51
Value
$159.28
PnL
+$1.49
Record
45%
3028-3723 (6751)
Invested
$49.75
Value
$50.1
PnL
+$2.94
Record
58%
21689-15792 (37481)
Anjun<$100Invested
$40.15
Value
$30.53
PnL
-$6.33
Record
55%
5199-4283 (9482)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
55.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.