Known as Reformedx since Nov 6 2026 · Previously known as: Reformedx (Oct 22 – Nov 6 2026)
Consensus PnL $34K · win rate 51% (870–843, n=1713) · PM monthly #832 · holds 9 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$33.6K
Record
870W / 843L
Win Rate
51.0%
of 1713 settled
Batting Avg
77.7%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#1129
Source
PM monthly #832
Record (90 d)
790/800 · 99%
Trades
11,458
Markets
1,770
Volume
$2.7M
Loading this trader’s full history
Large accounts take up to ~20 s
Loading positions and trades…
Top consensus positions
9 in listed consensus markets · 6 of 9 on the consensus side (67%)- Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden?No $15K · now 54¢ · in at 22¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will Bilibili Gaming win Worlds 2026?Yes $7.4K · now 24¢ · in at 14¢with the consensus (68% of 34)
- Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Beijing PlayoffsMOUZ $4.3K · now 100¢ · in at 87¢with the consensus (57% of 53)
- Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-11-07?No $2.2K · now 44¢ · in at 45¢with the consensus (61% of 33)
- Will Gen.G win Worlds 2026?No $235 · now 47¢ · in at 62¢against the consensus (Yes)
- Will T1 Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?No $217 · now 56¢ · in at 49¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Will Benfica finish first in UEL league phase?Yes $108 · now 53¢ · in at 13¢with the consensus (100% of 5)
- Will Bilibili Gaming Make the Worlds 2026 Grand Final?Yes $7 · now 56¢ · in at 24¢with the consensus (67% of 6)
Specialties
865 settled consensus markets · held side won 99% at an average entry of 55¢- Esports
+45 pts
side won 100% of 542 · avg entry 55¢
ROI +44%
- NBA
+49 pts
side won 100% of 32 · avg entry 51¢
ROI +45%
- Soccer
+41 pts
side won 98% of 212 · avg entry 57¢
ROI +40%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 5%(won 97% of 39)
- 30–50¢: 24%(won 98% of 208)
- 50–70¢: 55%(won 99% of 480)
- 70¢ and up: 16%(won 99% of 138)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.