Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?
2 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (40%) · No at 83¢ · $7K held · ends Jul 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 40%
$6.5K
$31.74
83.7¢ → 82.5¢
-1% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 5 top traders (40%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
901h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
40% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
1N 1nvoker1 | Noavg 83.7¢ | $5.0K | $4.9K | -$72.29 | — |
 thanksforplayinCTR | Yesavg 16.8¢ | $958.8 | $998.04 | +$39.24 | — |
32 328.400.fundCTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $396.05 | $462.12 | +$66.07 | — |
 Haradwaith | Noavg 83¢ | $166.08 | $165.08 | -$1 | — |
HI hithitfarCTR<$100 | Yesavg 46¢ | $1 | $0.18 | -$0.29 | — |
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Other / General 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.