Consensus PnL $14K · win rate 58% (362–261, n=623) · was PM monthly #999 · holds 66 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$14.2K
Record
362W / 261L
Win Rate
58.0%
of 623 settled
Batting Avg
70.0%
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#847
Source
PM monthly #999
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
31,234
Markets
901
Volume
$1.2M
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Top consensus positions
66 in listed consensus markets · 40 of 66 on the consensus side (61%)- Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?No $5.3K · now 92¢with the consensus (87% of 15)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?No $5.1K · now 83¢ · in at 84¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- US imports Russian diesel by January 31?No $4.7K · now 78¢against the consensus (Yes)
- US imports Russian diesel by March 31?No $4.7K · now 74¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (50% of 6)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?No $4.5K · now 79¢ · in at 76¢with the consensus (63% of 8)
- Will Louisiana enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes $4.0K · now 19¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Ohio enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2028?No $3.5K · now 70¢ · in at 69¢with the consensus (60% of 5)
- Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?Yes $3.5K · now 10¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
571 settled consensus markets · held side won 48% at an average entry of 45¢- Elections
+10 pts
side won 55% of 62 · avg entry 45¢
ROI 0%
- Geopolitics
+2 pts
side won 50% of 357 · avg entry 48¢
ROI −2%
- Other Sports
+11 pts
side won 42% of 12 · avg entry 31¢
ROI −1%
Weakest: Crypto — held side won 32% of 22 at an average 39¢ entry (−8 pts against the price), ROI −3%.
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 43%(won 5% of 246)
- 30–50¢: 10%(won 38% of 55)
- 50–70¢: 12%(won 75% of 69)
- 70¢ and up: 35%(won 94% of 201)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.