Consensus PnL $1.7K · no settled consensus market yet · PM monthly #97 · holds 19 consensus positions
Consensus PnL
$1.7K
Record
0W / 0L
Win Rate
—
Status
Profitable
Win-rate rank
#412
Source
PM monthly #97
Record (90 d)
0/0
Trades
0
Markets
5
Volume
$5.0K
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Top consensus positions
19 in listed consensus markets · 11 of 19 on the consensus side (58%)- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 10?Yes $6.6K · now 21¢ · in at 14¢against the consensus (No)
- Will Mary Peltola win the Alaska Senate race in 2026?Yes $5.0K · now 98¢ · in at 97¢with the consensus (75% of 122)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11?Yes $3.0K · now 89¢ · in at 57¢with the consensus (56% of 18)
- Will Christine Lagarde win the 2027 French presidential election?No $2.9K · now 94¢ · in at 92¢with the consensus (20% of 35)
- Will Kai Cenat finish his GTA marathon by November 11, 7:59 AM ET?Yes $2.0K · now 37¢ · in at 22¢with the consensus (55% of 12)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by December 31, 2027?Yes $774 · now 22¢ · in at 23¢against the consensus (No)
- US x Iran effective ceasefire continues through November 6, 2026?Yes $589 · now 100¢ · in at 91¢with the consensus (76% of 17)
- Will Texas enact a data center moratorium by June 30, 2027?Yes $462 · now 18¢ · in at 15¢against the consensus (No)
Specialties
52 settled consensus markets · held side won 75% at an average entry of 66¢- Elections
+9 pts
side won 78% of 37 · avg entry 69¢
ROI +6%
Entry prices (share of settled markets)
- under 30¢: 19%(won 10% of 10)
- 30–50¢: 12%(won 83% of 6)
- 50–70¢: 10%(won 80% of 5)
- 70¢ and up: 60%(won 94% of 31)
Ranked by how much more often the held side won than its entry price implied, on the low end of a 95% interval, so a short run of luck does not rank first; topics need 10+ settled markets. These records run optimistic: Polymarket's closed-position data rarely lists bets that went to zero. Consensus markets only, positions of $50 or more, hedged markets left out. Updated every few hours.