Will Texas Tech Red Raiders win the 2027 CFP National Championship?
5 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (100%) · No at 99¢ · $359 held · ends Jan 26, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 100%
$358.62
$0.34
99¢ → 99.2¢
+0% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 99%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 5 top traders (100%)4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Building
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 58%
Freshness
Late
49h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
100% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 58% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
GO godblessme2026 | Noavg 98.3¢ | $112.11 | $113.03 | +$0.92 | 41% 6811-9665 (16476) |
GR graynotebook19<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $94.41 | $94.19 | -$0.22 | 61% 14659-9189 (23848) |
GH ghorrock<$100 | Noavg 99.5¢ | $85.68 | $84.96 | -$0.39 | 58% 19232-14159 (33391) |
SM smallreceipt<$100 | Noavg 98.9¢ | $36.59 | $36.69 | +$0.1 | 49% 8663-9182 (17845) |
HA haveagoodday<$100 | Noavg 99.4¢ | $29.81 | $29.75 | -$0.06 | 51% 3565-3449 (7014) |
Invested
$112.11
Value
$113.03
PnL
+$0.92
Record
41%
6811-9665 (16476)
Invested
$94.41
Value
$94.19
PnL
-$0.22
Record
61%
14659-9189 (23848)
Invested
$85.68
Value
$84.96
PnL
-$0.39
Record
58%
19232-14159 (33391)
Invested
$36.59
Value
$36.69
PnL
+$0.1
Record
49%
8663-9182 (17845)
Invested
$29.81
Value
$29.75
PnL
-$0.06
Record
51%
3565-3449 (7014)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
99.2¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.0¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.