Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 95¢ · $8K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$8.1K
$32.58
94.1¢ → 95.1¢
+1% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 95%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
686h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 94.8¢ | $8.0K | $7.6K | +$26.87 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
 allenzzz | Noavg 93.2¢ | $130.48 | $133.14 | +$2.66 | 78% 125-36 (161) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 74¢ | $100 | $128.57 | +$28.57 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
 Talophex<$100 | Noavg 81.4¢ | $81.4 | $95.1 | +$13.7 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100 | Noavg 83.6¢ | $82.18 | $83.15 | +$0.98 | 56% 15372-11923 (27295) |
 funnydayCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $60.2 | $19.6 | -$40.2 | 50% 3914-3899 (7813) |
Invested
$8,037.79
Value
$7.6K
PnL
+$26.87
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
allenzzzInvested
$130.48
Value
$133.14
PnL
+$2.66
Record
78%
125-36 (161)
Invested
$100
Value
$128.57
PnL
+$28.57
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
Talophex<$100Invested
$81.4
Value
$95.1
PnL
+$13.7
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
ArmageddonRewardsBilly<$100Invested
$82.18
Value
$83.15
PnL
+$0.98
Record
56%
15372-11923 (27295)
funnydayCTR<$100Invested
$60.2
Value
$19.6
PnL
-$40.2
Record
50%
3914-3899 (7813)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
95.1¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.