Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 97¢ · $17K held · ends Jan 1, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$17.2K
$412.01
94.2¢ → 97¢
+3% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 97%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Side priced over 95¢Full year, out of sample: 0.90–0.95 −0.2 % a trade (n 12,989, 95 % CI −0.6 to +0.3); above 95¢ little is left to win and the tests stop at 0.95.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-17 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 81%
Freshness
Late
726h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 81% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
TH TheReturnOfDarthMaul | Noavg 95.9¢ | $9.0K | $8.7K | +$95.21 | 63% 353-204 (557) |
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 92.5¢ | $5.0K | $5.2K | +$242.14 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
 XAE12Archangel | Noavg 92.4¢ | $2.6K | $2.7K | +$126.07 | 66% 784-407 (1191) |
 Talophex | Noavg 93.6¢ | $280.7 | $290.85 | +$10.15 | 91% 929-95 (1024) |
 funnyday | Noavg 93.8¢ | $187.6 | $193.9 | +$6.3 | 50% 3914-3899 (7813) |
LI lissartterCTR | Yesavg 8.2¢ | $110.97 | $40.19 | -$67.86 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
Invested
$9,000
Value
$8.7K
PnL
+$95.21
Record
63%
353-204 (557)
Invested
$5,000
Value
$5.2K
PnL
+$242.14
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
XAE12ArchangelInvested
$2,562.56
Value
$2.7K
PnL
+$126.07
Record
66%
784-407 (1191)
TalophexInvested
$280.7
Value
$290.85
PnL
+$10.15
Record
91%
929-95 (1024)
funnydayInvested
$187.6
Value
$193.9
PnL
+$6.3
Record
50%
3914-3899 (7813)
Invested
$110.97
Value
$40.19
PnL
-$67.86
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
97.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.1¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.