Will the 49ers win the season series against the Cardinals during the 2026-27 NFL regular season?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (50%) · Yes at 57¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 27, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 50%
$2.1K
-$170.28
61¢ → 57¢
-7% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 57%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Side priced 50–60¢Full year, out of sample: 0.50–0.70 lost −2.9 % a trade (n 23,546, 95 % CI −3.9 to −1.9).
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
53h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ND ndb1 | Yesavg 63.7¢ | $1.1K | $914.95 | -$145.69 | 65% 957-513 (1470) |
 CUTJALENHURTS | Yesavg 58¢ | $606.25 | $668.96 | -$31.36 | 52% 6019-5625 (11644) |
KO korda77CTR | Noavg 36.3¢ | $355.68 | $352.98 | -$2.7 | 44% 6591-8244 (14835) |
 CosmicCedar | Yesavg 51.3¢ | $144.75 | $79.61 | +$5.31 | 59% 968-671 (1639) |
AN ancianoCTR<$100 | Noavg 38.7¢ | $19.35 | $22.5 | +$3.15 | 53% 1393-1213 (2606) |
SM smallreceiptCTR<$100 | Noavg 34¢ | $17 | $18 | +$1 | 49% 8980-9510 (18490) |
Invested
$1,060.64
Value
$914.95
PnL
-$145.69
Record
65%
957-513 (1470)
CUTJALENHURTSInvested
$606.25
Value
$668.96
PnL
-$31.36
Record
52%
6019-5625 (11644)
Invested
$355.68
Value
$352.98
PnL
-$2.7
Record
44%
6591-8244 (14835)
CosmicCedarInvested
$144.75
Value
$79.61
PnL
+$5.31
Record
59%
968-671 (1639)
Invested
$19.35
Value
$22.5
PnL
+$3.15
Record
53%
1393-1213 (2606)
Invested
$17
Value
$18
PnL
+$1
Record
49%
8980-9510 (18490)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
57.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 1.2¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.