Will the 5-year Treasury yield dip below 4.45% before 2027?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 66¢ · $2K held · ends Dec 31
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$2.5K
$236.94
77.1¢ → 65.5¢
-15% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+7 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 88%
Freshness
Late
406h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 88% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f251 | Noavg 75.3¢ | $1,000 | $856.13 | -$130.6 | 89% 538-64 (602) |
ST StonktraderCTR | Yesavg 17¢ | $404.73 | $846.28 | +$417.71 | 74% 168-59 (227) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 83¢ | $649.82 | $511.14 | -$138.68 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
XT xtxpleasecallme | Noavg 67¢ | $116.14 | $134.68 | +$18.54 | 36% 16072-28083 (44155) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Yesavg 18.6¢ | $16.31 | $90.46 | +$74.15 | 18% 3833-17376 (21209) |
LI lissartter<$100 | Noavg 74.6¢ | $53.64 | $49.46 | -$4.18 | 42% 5284-7234 (12518) |
Invested
$1,000
Value
$856.13
PnL
-$130.6
Record
89%
538-64 (602)
Invested
$404.73
Value
$846.28
PnL
+$417.71
Record
74%
168-59 (227)
Invested
$649.82
Value
$511.14
PnL
-$138.68
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$116.14
Value
$134.68
PnL
+$18.54
Record
36%
16072-28083 (44155)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$16.31
Value
$90.46
PnL
+$74.15
Record
18%
3833-17376 (21209)
Invested
$53.64
Value
$49.46
PnL
-$4.18
Record
42%
5284-7234 (12518)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Finance 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.