Will the Baltimore Ravens make the 2027 NFL Playoffs?
4 of 5 top Polymarket traders hold No (80%) · No at 83¢ · $2K held · ends Jan 25, 2027
⚖️
Neutral
No
5
No 80%
1 arb excluded
$2.4K
-$5.24
78.1¢ → 83¢
+6% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 5 top traders (80%)1 arbitrage trader dimmed1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Surging
+13 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 73%
Freshness
Mature
29h old
Flip Quality
Watch
1 consensus flip
80% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 73% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938 | Noavg 81.8¢ | $95.23 | $1.0K | +$223.68 | 45% 2390-2958 (5348) |
 TimeTravelerARB<$100 | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $517.12 | $572.49 | +$55.38 | 41% 2003-2838 (4841) |
| └ No leg | Noavg 24¢ | $105.07 | $366.13 | +$261.06 | |
| └ Yes leg | Yesavg 32.9¢ | $412.05 | $206.36 | -$205.68 | |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 71.9¢ | $579.17 | $323.33 | -$58.28 | 50% 1695-1680 (3375) |
 macrosteaks | Noavg 80.5¢ | $116.91 | $249.28 | +$47.9 | 55% 3332-2765 (6097) |
0X 0x53eCc53E7 | Noavg 68.3¢ | $561.29 | $231.33 | -$69.81 | 43% 470-622 (1092) |
AN ancianoCTR | Yesavg 79.9¢ | $399.18 | $50.07 | -$148.73 | 52% 1169-1072 (2241) |
Invested
$95.23
Value
$1.0K
PnL
+$223.68
Record
45%
2390-2958 (5348)
TimeTravelerARB<$100Invested
$517.12
Value
$572.49
PnL
+$55.38
Record
41%
2003-2838 (4841)
Both legs:
Invested
$579.17
Value
$323.33
PnL
-$58.28
Record
50%
1695-1680 (3375)
macrosteaksInvested
$116.91
Value
$249.28
PnL
+$47.9
Record
55%
3332-2765 (6097)
Invested
$561.29
Value
$231.33
PnL
-$69.81
Record
43%
470-622 (1092)
Invested
$399.18
Value
$50.07
PnL
-$148.73
Record
52%
1169-1072 (2241)
Chat
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
83.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Sports 5%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.