Will the Democratic Party candidate win the 2026 Michigan Senate election by 3%-6%?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 73¢ · $1K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$1.1K
$234.25
75.5¢ → 72.5¢
-4% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
467h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN AnonymousUsername | Noavg 75¢ | $100.5 | $437.74 | -$12.51 | 72% 6827-2621 (9448) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 8.9¢ | $110.44 | $345.6 | +$235.16 | 59% 3428-2336 (5764) |
XT xtxpleasecallmeCTR | Yesavg 24¢ | $128.31 | $145.82 | +$17.5 | 36% 16059-28074 (44133) |
GH ghorrock | Noavg 77.1¢ | $152.57 | $143.91 | -$8.66 | 56% 14224-11030 (25254) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBedCTR<$100 | Yesavg 23¢ | $20.08 | $22.71 | +$2.63 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
LO Loyalty-CrashCTR<$100 | Yesavg 19¢ | $0.28 | $0.39 | +$0.12 | 62% 45-28 (73) |
Invested
$100.5
Value
$437.74
PnL
-$12.51
Record
72%
6827-2621 (9448)
Invested
$110.44
Value
$345.6
PnL
+$235.16
Record
59%
3428-2336 (5764)
Invested
$128.31
Value
$145.82
PnL
+$17.5
Record
36%
16059-28074 (44133)
Invested
$152.57
Value
$143.91
PnL
-$8.66
Record
56%
14224-11030 (25254)
Invested
$20.08
Value
$22.71
PnL
+$2.63
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$0.28
Value
$0.39
PnL
+$0.12
Record
62%
45-28 (73)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.