Will the Democratic Party candidate win the first round of the 2026 Georgia Senate election by 12%-15%?
1 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (17%) · No at 73¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 17%
$5.8K
$355.73
Research grade
NeutralNo at 73%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
1 of 6 top traders (17%)5 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
1 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
113h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
17% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AL Albert 1953 | Noavg 66.3¢ | $3.8K | $4.2K | +$354.85 | 50% 1097-1102 (2199) |
0X 0x66E7ce01C6831B8A2503D09eDD6167152Ee68BcD-1771870353938CTR | Yesavg 26.2¢ | $842.68 | $885.31 | +$42.63 | 45% 2314-2842 (5156) |
SB sbimbgCTR | Yesavg 32.3¢ | $506.98 | $432.01 | -$74.97 | 70% 3203-1386 (4589) |
SH shiifooCTR | Yesavg 23.9¢ | $106.92 | $175.73 | +$35.43 | 59% 3562-2476 (6038) |
SP SPLPBCTR | Yesavg 33¢ | $103.29 | $86.08 | -$17.22 | 24% 666-2084 (2750) |
CO cocococococoCTR<$100 | Yesavg 15¢ | $18 | $33 | +$15 | 52% 1668-1539 (3207) |
Invested
$3,816.76
Value
$4.2K
PnL
+$354.85
Record
50%
1097-1102 (2199)
Invested
$842.68
Value
$885.31
PnL
+$42.63
Record
45%
2314-2842 (5156)
Invested
$506.98
Value
$432.01
PnL
-$74.97
Record
70%
3203-1386 (4589)
Invested
$106.92
Value
$175.73
PnL
+$35.43
Record
59%
3562-2476 (6038)
Invested
$103.29
Value
$86.08
PnL
-$17.22
Record
24%
666-2084 (2750)
Invested
$18
Value
$33
PnL
+$15
Record
52%
1668-1539 (3207)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
72.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.