Will the Democratic Party win the FL-09 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 66¢ · $771 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$771.04
$4.81
64¢ → 65.5¢
+2% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 66%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 87%
Freshness
Mature
33h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 87% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
SB sbimbg | Noavg 63¢ | $311.73 | $321.62 | +$12.37 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed | Noavg 64.3¢ | $202.71 | $204.96 | +$3.84 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 36.8¢ | $100.33 | $96.59 | -$3.74 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
LI lineth<$100 | Noavg 70¢ | $71.94 | $66.8 | -$4.62 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 37¢ | $74 | $66 | -$5 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
11 11122<$100 | Noavg 57¢ | $13.09 | $15.05 | +$1.97 | 44% 1401-1817 (3218) |
Invested
$311.73
Value
$321.62
PnL
+$12.37
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
Invested
$202.71
Value
$204.96
PnL
+$3.84
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$100.33
Value
$96.59
PnL
-$3.74
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$71.94
Value
$66.8
PnL
-$4.62
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
Invested
$74
Value
$66
PnL
-$5
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$13.09
Value
$15.05
PnL
+$1.97
Record
44%
1401-1817 (3218)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
65.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.