Will the Democratic Party win the FL-12 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (83%) · No at 85¢ · $5K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 83%
$4.6K
$86.83
83.6¢ → 85¢
+2% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 85%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%2 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 97%
Freshness
Late
394h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 97% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836 | Noavg 84.1¢ | $4.0K | $4.1K | +$41.96 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
IM immanuelcan | Noavg 79.5¢ | $87.5 | $257.13 | -$3.87 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Yesavg 15¢ | $48.79 | $132.26 | +$33.32 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
CO cowcat | Noavg 74.2¢ | $106.85 | $122.4 | +$15.55 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
CB Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed<$100 | Noavg 85¢ | $24.75 | $24.75 | +$0 | 53% 6689-5886 (12575) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 93¢ | $1.49 | $1.36 | -$0.13 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$4,027.32
Value
$4.1K
PnL
+$41.96
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
Invested
$87.5
Value
$257.13
PnL
-$3.87
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Invested
$48.79
Value
$132.26
PnL
+$33.32
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$106.85
Value
$122.4
PnL
+$15.55
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$24.75
Value
$24.75
PnL
+$0
Record
53%
6689-5886 (12575)
Invested
$1.49
Value
$1.36
PnL
-$0.13
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
85.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.5¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.