Will the Democratic Party win the FL-25 House seat?
6 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (100%) · Yes at 83¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
Yes
6
Yes 100%
$7.9K
$113.87
81.2¢ → 82.5¢
+2% since entry · 6 traders
Research grade
NeutralYes at 83%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
6 of 6 top traders (100%)1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
6 traders
Top 2 hold 68%
Freshness
Late
1798h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
100% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 68% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Yesavg 81.6¢ | $3.1K | $3.1K | +$35.36 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
SB sbimbg | Yesavg 81¢ | $2.3K | $2.3K | +$42.75 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
 aenews2 | Yesavg 85¢ | $1.4K | $1.4K | -$41.54 | 60% 1773-1174 (2947) |
CO Contestable-Parfait | Yesavg 75.7¢ | $609.26 | $663.86 | +$54.6 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
PE peepeepooppoop | Yesavg 78.7¢ | $735.02 | $378.02 | -$1.77 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
IM immanuelcan<$100 | Yesavg 64¢ | $79.32 | $80.16 | +$24.48 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
Invested
$3,068.08
Value
$3.1K
PnL
+$35.36
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
Invested
$2,294.04
Value
$2.3K
PnL
+$42.75
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
aenews2Invested
$1,412.27
Value
$1.4K
PnL
-$41.54
Record
60%
1773-1174 (2947)
Invested
$609.26
Value
$663.86
PnL
+$54.6
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$735.02
Value
$378.02
PnL
-$1.77
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$79.32
Value
$80.16
PnL
+$24.48
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
Chat
Sign in with your wallet to post.
EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
82.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.6¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.