Smart money holds the underdog side
Most tracked traders hold No, while the market favors Yes (80%). 2 of 6 traders hold an outcome priced under 50%.
Historically, consensus on sides priced under 40¢ lost money after costs.
Will the Democratic Party win the MI-07 House seat?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 21¢ · $4K held · ends Nov 4
⚠️
Avoid
No
6
No 33%
$3.8K
-$851.27
42.5¢ → 20.5¢
-52% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
AvoidNo at 21%
Matches a pattern that lost clearly more than the plain consensus in our tests.
- Consensus side under 30¢Full year, out of sample: 0.05–0.30 lost −8.1 % a trade (n 11,568), under 0.20 −20.5 % (n 3,615). Oct 22 backtest: −29.5 % (n 1,625). The strongest effect in every test.
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)Underdog side (market favors Yes 80%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
1653h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
4 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 twinna | Yesavg 68¢ | $2.2K | $2.5K | +$364.49 | 50% 92-93 (185) |
AN anoin123CTR | Noavg 43¢ | $2.4K | $1.1K | $-1.2K | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 74¢ | $95.5 | $102.56 | +$7.05 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
LI lineth<$100 | Yesavg 68.5¢ | $35.64 | $41.34 | +$5.7 | 41% 245-350 (595) |
 2B9SCTR<$100 | Noavg 20¢ | $23.1 | $23.1 | +$0.58 | 18% 3832-17370 (21202) |
DE dedidanc<$100 | Yesavg 68¢ | $3.4 | $3.98 | +$0.58 | 57% 103-77 (180) |
twinnaInvested
$2,150.52
Value
$2.5K
PnL
+$364.49
Record
50%
92-93 (185)
Invested
$2,350.06
Value
$1.1K
PnL
$-1.2K
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
Invested
$95.5
Value
$102.56
PnL
+$7.05
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$35.64
Value
$41.34
PnL
+$5.7
Record
41%
245-350 (595)
2B9SCTR<$100Invested
$23.1
Value
$23.1
PnL
+$0.58
Record
18%
3832-17370 (21202)
Invested
$3.4
Value
$3.98
PnL
+$0.58
Record
57%
103-77 (180)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
20.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.7¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.