Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-02 House seat?
3 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (50%) · No at 69¢ · $8K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 50%
$7.7K
-$31.91
70.5¢ → 68.5¢
-3% since entry · 3 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 69%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
3 of 6 top traders (50%)3 hold an outcome priced under 50%1 small position dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
-7 pts consensus
Breadth
3 traders
Top 2 hold 96%
Freshness
Late
709h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
8 consensus flips
50% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 96% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
AN anoin123 | Noavg 67.4¢ | $4.2K | $4.3K | +$65.69 | 47% 474-534 (1008) |
SB sbimbg | Noavg 77¢ | $2.3K | $2.0K | -$253.83 | 70% 3189-1369 (4558) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 27.4¢ | $684.99 | $774.99 | +$102.51 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
CO Contestable-ParfaitCTR | Yesavg 31¢ | $315.6 | $320.7 | +$5.09 | 38% 20-32 (52) |
AB ABC12345654321 | Noavg 68.5¢ | $426.73 | $274.71 | +$47.83 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0xc8b9a30184244d427169cf62485dde6041b2b836CTR<$100 | Yesavg 18¢ | $1.06 | $1.85 | +$0.79 | 61% 203-132 (335) |
Invested
$4,190.1
Value
$4.3K
PnL
+$65.69
Record
47%
474-534 (1008)
Invested
$2,284.43
Value
$2.0K
PnL
-$253.83
Record
70%
3189-1369 (4558)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$684.99
Value
$774.99
PnL
+$102.51
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
Invested
$315.6
Value
$320.7
PnL
+$5.09
Record
38%
20-32 (52)
Invested
$426.73
Value
$274.71
PnL
+$47.83
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$1.06
Value
$1.85
PnL
+$0.79
Record
61%
203-132 (335)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
68.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.8¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.