Will the Democratic Party win the NV-02 House seat?
4 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (67%) · No at 64¢ · $6K held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 67%
$5.7K
$268.27
63¢ → 63.5¢
+1% since entry · 4 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 64%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
4 of 6 top traders (67%)2 hold an outcome priced under 50%3 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Fading
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
4 traders
Top 2 hold 99%
Freshness
Late
4825h old
Flip Quality
Choppy
14 consensus flips
67% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 99% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
ME Melody626 | Noavg 63¢ | $3.9K | $3.9K | +$31.03 | 58% 705-521 (1226) |
 BigRabbitCTR | Yesavg 35.8¢ | $1.1K | $1.1K | +$21.51 | 40% 704-1061 (1765) |
 nicoco89CTR | Yesavg 21.3¢ | $307.26 | $522.06 | +$214.8 | 65% 1075-583 (1658) |
88 881112<$100 | Noavg 59¢ | $48.82 | $52.96 | +$3.72 | 37% 566-944 (1510) |
CO cowcat<$100 | Noavg 70.5¢ | $29.84 | $26.88 | -$2.96 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
0X 0xa169f83d28ad1ce5a14cc1c49796b547ece21b73<$100 | Noavg 63¢ | $21.07 | $21.4 | +$0.17 | 40% 174-265 (439) |
Invested
$3,883.25
Value
$3.9K
PnL
+$31.03
Record
58%
705-521 (1226)
BigRabbitCTRInvested
$1,073.31
Value
$1.1K
PnL
+$21.51
Record
40%
704-1061 (1765)
nicoco89CTRInvested
$307.26
Value
$522.06
PnL
+$214.8
Record
65%
1075-583 (1658)
Invested
$48.82
Value
$52.96
PnL
+$3.72
Record
37%
566-944 (1510)
Invested
$29.84
Value
$26.88
PnL
-$2.96
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$21.07
Value
$21.4
PnL
+$0.17
Record
40%
174-265 (439)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
63.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.9¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.