Will the Democratic Party win the NY-11 House seat?
2 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold No (33%) · No at 93¢ · $600 held · ends Nov 4
⚖️
Neutral
No
6
No 33%
$599.75
$94.02
75.3¢ → 93¢
+24% since entry · 2 traders
Research grade
NeutralNo at 93%
No measured edge, which here means a loss: the plain consensus (5+ holders, 60 %+, held to resolution) lost −3.0 % a trade after costs out of sample in the full-year test (n 86,296, 95 % CI −3.6 to −2.4 %).
- Consensus under 60 %Every backtest started at 60 %+ of the holders; below that nothing was measured.
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
2 of 6 top traders (33%)4 hold an outcome priced under 50%4 small positions dimmed (<$100 invested)
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
2 traders
Top 2 hold 100%
Freshness
Late
395h old
Flip Quality
Clean
0 consensus flips
33% of non-arb traders are on No. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 100% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
CO cowcat | Noavg 67.1¢ | $228.11 | $316.2 | +$88.09 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
TH TheImpasse | Noavg 96¢ | $135.24 | $132.32 | -$2.92 | 22% 145-528 (673) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $2.35 | $72.14 | +$12.82 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
0X 0x7e1f9c90800E42806e242ABC5fcf26B571c79C27-1775842903107CTR<$100 | Yesavg 7¢ | $71.26 | $71.26 | +$0 | 50% 2582-2633 (5215) |
PE peepeepooppoopCTR<$100 | Yesavg 12.6¢ | $6.51 | $6.51 | -$0 | 52% 2050-1868 (3918) |
IM immanuelcanCTR<$100 | Yesavg 27.6¢ | $5.29 | $1.32 | -$3.97 | 53% 906-789 (1695) |
Invested
$228.11
Value
$316.2
PnL
+$88.09
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$135.24
Value
$132.32
PnL
-$2.92
Record
22%
145-528 (673)
Invested
$2.35
Value
$72.14
PnL
+$12.82
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
Invested
$71.26
Value
$71.26
PnL
+$0
Record
50%
2582-2633 (5215)
Invested
$6.51
Value
$6.51
PnL
-$0
Record
52%
2050-1868 (3918)
Invested
$5.29
Value
$1.32
PnL
-$3.97
Record
53%
906-789 (1695)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
93.0¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.2¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.