Will the Democratic Party win the OH-07 House seat?
5 of 6 top Polymarket traders hold Yes (83%) · Yes at 87¢ · $10K held · ends Nov 4
🔬
Research candidate
Yes
6
Yes 83%
$9.9K
$845.08
78¢ → 86.5¢
+11% since entry · 5 traders
Research grade
Research candidateYes at 87%
Matches a rule that looked positive after costs in the short windows of our Oct 22 2026 backtest. The full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found no evidence for any of these rules: out of sample they lost money or were noise. A label for a pattern that once looked good, not an edge and not a recommendation.
- Quality net +3 or moreNot confirmed. Oct 22 backtest: net +3 when the consensus formed made +7.2 % a trade (n 358), with 5 events giving two thirds of it. Full year, out of sample, the closest rule (3+ proven winners, two thirds on the side) lost −1.9 % a trade (n 49,161, 95 % CI −2.6 to −1.1).
- Favourite (60–95¢)Full year, out of sample: 0.70–0.90 lost −0.9 % a trade (n 26,050, 95 % CI −1.5 to −0.3): the least bad band, still a loss. The Oct 22 backtest's +0.4 % (n 4,327) was not confirmed.
The rules come from our Oct 22 2026 backtest (one entry per market, held to resolution, after a 1¢ half-spread and Polymarket's taker fees). Our full-year test without hindsight (Oct 26 2026) found none of them profitable out of sample, and the plain consensus lost −3.0 % a trade. The grade describes the market; it is not a forecast, not an edge and not advice.
Smart Money Signal
5 of 6 top traders (83%)1 holds an outcome priced under 50%
Outcome Probabilities
Smart Money Breakdown by Outcome
Signal Intelligence
Momentum
Flat
+0 pts consensus
Breadth
5 traders
Top 2 hold 95%
Freshness
Late
1902h old
Flip Quality
Watch
2 consensus flips
83% of non-arb traders are on Yes. Concentration is driven by the top two positions owning 95% of that side's value.
| Trader | Position | Invested | Value | PnL | Record |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
 scottilicious | Yesavg 78.8¢ | $8.2K | $9.0K | +$802.34 | 82% 945-201 (1146) |
 bosshog | Yesavg 74¢ | $327.95 | $383.35 | +$55.4 | 72% 1052-415 (1467) |
CO cowcat | Yesavg 65.4¢ | $247.35 | $220.63 | -$26.71 | 53% 1560-1362 (2922) |
AP apmt | Yesavg 80¢ | $160 | $173 | +$13 | 74% 64-22 (86) |
 Chungvicular | Yesavg 54¢ | $89.67 | $143.63 | +$53.97 | 46% 49-57 (106) |
AB ABC12345654321CTR | Noavg 13¢ | $128.95 | $37.8 | -$52.91 | 50% 1658-1652 (3310) |
scottiliciousInvested
$8,175.17
Value
$9.0K
PnL
+$802.34
Record
82%
945-201 (1146)
bosshogInvested
$327.95
Value
$383.35
PnL
+$55.4
Record
72%
1052-415 (1467)
Invested
$247.35
Value
$220.63
PnL
-$26.71
Record
53%
1560-1362 (2922)
Invested
$160
Value
$173
PnL
+$13
Record
74%
64-22 (86)
ChungvicularInvested
$89.67
Value
$143.63
PnL
+$53.97
Record
46%
49-57 (106)
Invested
$128.95
Value
$37.8
PnL
-$52.91
Record
50%
1658-1652 (3310)
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EV Calculator
Consensus % is how many tracked traders hold a side, not a win probability.
86.5¢ price + 1.0¢ spread + 0.4¢ fee (Politics 4%). Win more often than this and the bet pays.
A market order pays the taker fee and crosses the spread (assumed 1.0¢); a limit order pays no fee but may not fill. The fee category is a guess from the title.